I'm not sure if the races are getting harder to analyse or is it me getting old and finding things harder i think the latter. I would look to lay Fair Alibi, maybe outclassed, Giogiobbo who might need further and Samovar runs well many times but hasn't won a race this year, I've got MULZIM 5/1 as my 2nd top rated on 2020 c/d times and this one has good trainer/jockey stats which make me think connections are expecting to win this race, ALSVINDER 11/1 (EW) could be the one to set the pace to the race but it hasn't run on this course before but if able to reproduce its Chelmsford time it could well lead all the way for the victory as it is my overall top rated and as long as 8 horses take part then it might be a worthwhile each way punt.
Mulzim 5/1 1st (+5pts) (Betfair SP 6.8)
Alsvinder 14/1 6th (-2pts)
Total: +3pts
SOUTHWELL 4.15
Only 7 runners but at least there is a couple of known front runners so it should be a true run race, Spring Romance is in very good form but its wins have come in relatively slow run races and I don't think that will happen here, i will look to lay Vape if of value to do so, The Nosey Parker could attempt to lead or contest the lead although this will be its first run on this surface so its not guaranteed to take to it and would need to improve for the switch time wise to win this race, the 3yo Capla Spirit has only quite slow times over this c/d, Excessable is 3rd best on my figures and likes to track the leaders, YOUNG JOHN 11/2 got beat at odds on last time out and has been found a good opportunity to put that run behind it here and if it decides to front run in this race it could lead all the way and using a 2019 time it is my top rated but only just ahead of AL SUIL ELLE 12/1 who runs on strongly at the business end of the race and this ones best c/d time was recorded this year and has to be worth backing at the price, so I will back them both to cover the angles.
Young John 8/1 4th (-1pt)
Al Suil Elle 12/1 5th (-1pt)
Total: -2pts
Total on the Day +1pt
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