A strange race to analyse mainly due to both 3yo’s and lightly raced sorts, there are a couple of known front running types in Kodiac Attack and Buy Me Back and the latter is my 3rd top-rated using just 2020 c/d times so could possibly make the frame, the top weight Brenner Pass is my 2nd top-rated on 2020 c/d times and usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish, Nezar is top-rated on 2020 c/d times and another that likes to track the leaders ready to pounce nearing the finish and could be worth an each-way wager if a double-figure price but I will be backing INVINCIBLE LARNE 6/1 who has never run over this c/d but it has a time from Chelmsford, the same surface but left-handed while this course is right-handed if taking to this course and able to reproduce its best time it would win this race rather cosily and as that time was recorded this year I am willing to take that risk.
Invincible Larne 6/1 3rd (-1pt)
Total: -1pt
KEMPTON 8.15
This is a dire affair and its only because I've seen a horse that looks overpriced on the tissue prices that I am bothering with the race, I've only got 5 with recorded times Passional is 5th top using a Southwell time and may be better over further and this race might not be run to suit its style, Bold Decision 4th top but looks to want a slower surface or further or maybe both, Mercers is 3rd top using a c/d time from last year and could make the frame but maybe won't be an each-way price, *Fard is 2nd top-rated using a Newcastle time from 2019 and has a decent time over the same c/d this year and maybe worth an each-way punt, URBAN HIGHWAY 11/1 is top rated using a Lingfield time from last year, it hasn't shown much so far this year but has (EW) raced mainly in slightly higher grade races and the switch of jockey makes me think they are expecting an improved performance here.
Urban Highway 14/1 8th (-2pt)
Total -2pts
Total on the day: -3pts
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