A ten runner dash but strangely only 1 known front runner amongst them although Lordsbridge Boy has led before over 6 furlongs but maybe it won't be able to lead now dropped back to the minimum trip, Miaella is my 3rd top rated using its best time from 2019 and hasn't had any recent c/d form to work with, sitting in 2nd top spot is Roundabout Magic who can be held up for a late run or track the leaders and then stay on resolutely but I will be backing my top rated horse and the only horse that I would call a natural front running type and in the make-up of this race even stall 10 might not prevent *AUTUMN TRAIL 7/1 from getting to the front and once there it could prove hard to catch, the trainer has a 19% win rate at this course with their older horses and the jockey is in very good form lately.
*NR
SOUTHWELL 5.20
I will highlight the lays firstly (Sfumato who might not really like this surface and may need further to shine + Archimedes who hasn't been in form lately and may struggle to stay the trip if there's a fast early pace) Three Card Trick is the only known front runner but would need to improve time wise to win here, the top weight Brenner Pass has a fast time from Lingfield which would see it being competitive but its best time on this surface is a bit below par, Hellofagame has one cracking time from 2019 but that's looking like a fluke where it got carried along in a fast run affair and is still a maiden after 19 previous runs, LOULIN 6/1 is another with a time that would put it in the mix and could win the race on its best c/d time and it will be carrying some of my money but not the full amount mainly due to the jockeys 0-17 record for this stable, i will also be backing PUCHITA 5/2 who is being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice which could swing things its way and he does have a 2-4 win ratio for this stable so I'm assuming that connections are expecting a big run here but the price is on the short side.
Puchita 13/2 1st (+6.5pts) Betfair SP (11.42)
Loulin 6/1 Unp (-1pt)
Lay bets: Sfumato +1pt, Archimedes +1pt
Total: +7.5pts
Total on the day: +7.5pts
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