WATCHABLE 10/1 has the fastest c/d time for just 2020 races but its best from Newcastle in 2019 is only good enough for 5th top overall.
ORNATE 14/1 is a natural frontrunning sort but it's drawn widest of all of the 4 possible pacesetters which aren't ideal and this one's best figure from Newcastle is 4th top overall.
EL GUANCHE 12/1 hasn't run in the UK before and looking at its form it may be a better proposition when tried over a longer distance.
LEODIS DREAM 14/1 is a possible frontrunner and has the best drawn in stall 1, its best time comes from Chelmsford and its best c/d time is a bit short of the top-rated horses.
PISTOLETTO 25/1 a 3yo that hasn't got much form to work with but I think it's another that will be better when tried over further.
FIZZY FEET 11/2 is 2nd best on just 2020 c/d times and that is its best rating but that is a good few spots short or the top-rated horses.
EMBOUR 11/1 has its best time from Chelmsford which would be good enough for 3rd top spot overall, it should stay on but maybe too late for the win but could make the frame.
TOP BREEZE 3/1 is a possible pacesetter and from stall 3 it could either lead or at least contest the lead and is my top rated using its best time from Lingfield.
BENNY AND THE JETS 7/2 the 4th possible pacesetter is 2nd best overall using a Chelmsford and 3rd best on just 2020 c/d times so could go well.
HAN SOLO BERGER 12/1 hasn't run on this surface before and its best from Kempton wouldn't be good enough so will need to improve for the switch to this surface.
VERNE CASTLE 9/1 hasn't any recent c/d form and its best from 2017/18 would leave it just outside my top ratings.
SUMMARY: I think this race could well be won from the front with only 7lbs between the four known front running types and it could be the draw which is the biggest factor, Leodis Dream in stall 1 and TOP BREEZE 3/1 in stall 3 could set the pace and if the latter gets to the front it ought to prove hard to catch and the 5lb claiming apprentice has an 18% win ratio on this stables older horses and I'm hoping that connections are expecting it to win here.
Top Breeze 3/1 3rd (-1pt)
Total on the day -1pt
No comments:
Post a Comment