This is a tricky looking race even with only ten runners, on my speed figure side of things, Jack The Truth, Charming Kid, Mercenary Rose, and Benny And The Jets are all closely matched with only six spots between them, I will look to lay (Just That Lord who has shown very little compared to 2018 and earlier - Lihou who has shown very little timewise and the jockey doesn't look a positive booking)
Grandfather Tom is one of the five that have been known to lead and it does have the plum stall one draw but would need to improve to lead all the way even if it did manage to get to the front, Jack The Truth is another possible pacesetter and is housed in stall six, Charming Kid should be trying to stay on strongly at the finish but would need to produce its best to make the frame in this race but this 4year old could still improve a little, my money will be riding on MERCENARY ROSE 11/2 who is another possible pacesetter, the stall 9 draw isn't ideal but if getting to the front it could prove very hard to catch.
Mercenary Rose 6/1 3rd
Lay bets: Just That Lord +1pt, Lihou +1pt)
Total: +1pt
NEWCASTLE 2.30
This is a class 2 race but 8 of the 12 runners have no form over this c/d and some haven't even run on the AW before so they could be unseen dangers so my stakes will definitely be kept on the low side of normal, in many ways there are 7 horses that I could look to lay for various reasons, Glen Shiel may need further, Justanotherbottle maybe too far for it, Vintage Brut may prefer a slower surface, *Growl another who likes slow surfaces, Camacho Chief may be better over shorter trips, Cold Store could need a slower surface to shine and Admiralty may need further before it shows its true worth, Mubakker has very good connections and will I expect be the favourite but the jockey hasnt got a great record on the stables older horses but it could possibly be a late developer so I couldn't back or lay this horse, Hyperfocus is a c/d winner so cannot be discounted but I will be having a punt on COSMIC LAW 8/1 but i will be keeping my stakes low as this ones stable has two other runners in the race and it could be a non-trier but if on its game it could be the value call in the race.
Cosmic Law 8/1 9th
Lay bets: Glen Shield +1pt, Justanotherbottel +1pt, Vintage Brut +1pt, Camacho Chief +1pt, Coldstore +1pt, Admiralty +1pt
Total: +5pts
Total on the day: +6pts
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