As you probably noticed yesterday I changed my way of writing about each race listing those that have no chance and then any that I will be backing, the idea is to make a profit even if you don't find the winner, as long as none of the laying bets win, I am confident enough to say lay at any price even if it's only for a small stake it all adds up.
LINGFIELD 2.05
Only 5 runners and there's a couple Gracious John and Reckless Endeavour who would go well on their old form here and the latter is the only horse that's not on a double-figure losing run after winning last time out, Count Otto and Mrehoob are my top 2 ratings on 2019 times. My suggestion in this race is to lay Savalas at 5/2 who can struggle to stay 6 furlongs in a fast run race.
Lay: Savalas (+1pt) 5th
Total = +1pt
LINGFIELD 2.40
I have marked half of the 8 runners, Superseded, Cuban Spirit, Ewell Spring and Full Spectrum as potential lays in this race, Terri Rules is my 4th top-rated and likes to track the leaders as does my 3rd top-rated Fareeq who won last time out so we know is in good form, Compton Abbey is my top-rated using 2019 c/d times and could be the one to set the pace in this race, the jockeys 0-25 record on this stables older horses puts me off a little and it's maybe out for the run in preparation for a future race while MERCERS 13/2 who hasn't run well here recently comes out in top spot using its best 2018 time. I will be backing Mercers and maybe a covering bet on Compton Abbey and also lay the four horses mentioned earlier.
Lays: Cuban Spirit 1st (-5.5pts) Superseded 3rd (+1pt) Ewell Spring 6th (+1pt) Full Spectrum 7th (+1pt)
Win bet: Mercers 13/2 5th
Total - 3.5pts
NEWCASTLE 5.15
With this 6 runner race I will look to lay, Alsvinder, Venturous and Heath Charnock, Doc Sportello hasn't shown much recently and its best from way back would only make it 3rd top, BIG LES is my 2nd op rated here but the one I think will set the pace and could prove hard to catch if getting an easy lead but I do have COMMANDER HAN 3/1 rated 3lbs higher but this ones losing run of 19 is off-putting but I will have to back both of them to cover the angles.
Lays: Venturous 1st (-4pts) Heath Charnock 2nd (+1pt) Alsvinder 6th (+1pt)
Win bets: Commander Han 3/1 4th, Big Les 14/1 5th
Total - 3pts
NEWCASTLE 6,15
In this 11 runner race I have found 3 that I will lay, Captain Dion, Black Friday and Be Proud, in 4th top spot I've got WASNTEXPECTINGTHAT 3/1 who has done well on the AW in its 3 races and while in hot form it could make the frame again here and has a positive looking jockey booking, EPEIUS is 3rd top and the trainer does well at this track and this jockey booking also looks a positive move, ROCK BOY GREY 11/2 is top-rated on just 2019 c/d times and this one's jockey does well on the stables older horses, LUCKY LODGE 12/1 is 2nd top on 2019 c/d times but has a time from 2018 that would move it to top spot overall. I will be dutching the 4 horses mentioned and also lay the other 3 mentioned at the top of this race analysis.
Lays: Black Friday (NR), Be Proud 2nd (+1pt) Captian Dion 6th (+1pt)
Win bets: Wasntexpectingthat 1/1 1st, Lucky Lodge 14/1 5th, Epius 10/1 8th. (NR) Rock Boy Grey
Total: + 1.67pts
Total day: - 3.83pts
BACK
Lay
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