GUARDIA SVIZZERA, trained by Roger Fell, has recorded a good time from Newcastle at this distance, which makes it my top-rated on course and distance 2019 times. The apprentice jockey's 5lb claim makes it top-rated overall as well. This looks a good chance to follow up its win last time out.
AUTUMN SPLENDOUR comes out 2nd top on 2019 c/d times but is on a losing run of 13 races and hasn't been in good form lately so not for me till it shows signs of a revival.
NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM has only slow c/d times recently and its best from 2017 wouldn't be good enough to win and with just one win and one place from 21 previous AW runs doesn't inspire confidence.
SIR HECTOR could possibly set the pace here but only has slow times over this c/d and only one win to its name on any AW track.
EVERKYLLACHY 18/1 has a very good trainer/jockey stats and it is 3rd top on 2019 c/d times but would need to improve to win but I can see it running a big race here and maybe worth an each-way bet at the price.
CHOCCO STAR 9/2 is still a maiden after 7 runs and I think a longer trip would suit better but it did a good time at Kempton and this is its 1st run over this c/d but not one I could back here.
OH SO NICE 5/1 is a 3yo who could improve and it would have to improve to win this race as it's not in my top 3 of just 2019 times here.
JORVIK PRINCE has a poor trainer record of 0-9 and a jockey stat of 0-8 and hasn't been in good form for quite a while now, it has a time to make the frame on a 2018 race, but not for me in this race.
MISS GRADENKO has a time from Kempton that would make it my 2nd top-rated but its sole try over this c/d wasn't of any worth timewise.
BROTHER BENTLEY is 0-8 on the AW tracks and a slow time on its one c/d run, I think it might be better when tried over a longer distance.
GRIGGY 11/2 has run twice before over this c/d but shown very little and is still a maiden after 14 races and I doubt that will change here over what looks too short a distance and I would lay it at the price.
SUMMARY: A tricky looking class 6 affair with a couple of frontrunners to ensure there's a genuine early pace my money will be riding on the topweight GUARDIA SVEZZERA 5/1 who won last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow it up here, I'm hoping from stall 7 it can get a good early position with the 2 known pacesetters being drawn wider he could follow them across and sit just behind them ready to pounce when they get into the straight.
Guardia Svezzera 11/2 5th
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