CHELMSFORD 7.00
THREE LITTLE BIRDS has only slow times at this distance and looks a much better prospect over a shorter trip than this 6 furlongs.
IN THE RED hasn't any recent distance form to work with and looking back it seems as though this one might prefer a longer trip to shine.
SOMETHING LUCKY would need to improve timewise to win this race but it does usually stay on strongly at this trip but maybe too late here.
CASE KEY 15/2 hasn't shown much in 4 previous AW runs but it has a time from the turf on good to firm going that would give it a chance of making the frame but would need to improve to win this race and its not really an each-way price.
DESERT FOX (NON-RUNNER) will be staying on strongly at the finish in this race and it comes out joint top rated on my unique speed figures so has to be considered as a potential winner.
GOOD ANSWER hasn't any AW form to its name and analysing its form on grass it might need a slower surface than this one to show its best.
POETA BRASILEIRO 7/2 is one of 2 known frontrunners in the race and being my 3rd top-rated it could prove hard to catch for some of its opponents, it's now my 2nd top-rated but isn't an each-way price.
REGULATOR is 0-6 on the AW tracks and has lost its last 18 races and may really need a longer trip to show its true worth.
REAL ESTATE is just outside my top 3 using its best 2018 time and it's another that will be trying to stay on strongly at the business end of the race.
BORN TO FINISH15/2 has only slow times to its name recently and its best from 2018 would put it just out of the frame and hasn't won in its last 10 runs, it's now 3rd best on overall figures but again it's not really an each-way price.
HIC BIBI this one only has slow times to its name over this distance and I think a longer trip may pay dividends with this horse.
LALANIA is the other horse in the race that looks a natural frontrunner but timewise it's only my 5th top-rated so the race could be set up for a finishing type.
SENORITA GRANDE 10/3 is well weighted on its best time and has good trainer and jockey statistics to make me think connections expect a big run in this race.
KODILINE is on a losing run of 14 which isn't a good sign and its best time from 2018 would see it just outside the frame and maybe better over further.
SUMMARY: I think the two frontrunners, Poeta Brasiliro and Lalania will set the race up for something coming from off the pace and there's plenty who race in that style although the former could do enough to hold on for a place, SENORITA GRANDE 10/3 who is now my joint top-rated, my stakes may be tilted in favour of the latter a 3-year-old who could have some improvement to come but I will back them both, now all my money will be riding on it.
Senorita Grande 5/1 6th
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